Services

The NPA Relief Planning Model

Introduction

Relief planners use a Neustar-developed model to estimate the impact of different relief alternatives. The model:

• Provides consistency in the alternatives presented to the industry during the relief planning process;
• Mechanizes the more routine calculations and data manipulation tasks, eliminating calculation errors; and
• Allows relief planners to respond immediately to industry requests for changes to relief alternatives or to new "what if" alternatives, thus minimizing the need for additional relief planning meetings or teleconferences.

The Model is written in Microsoft Excel™ and Microsoft Visual Basic™.

Functions of the Model

The model provides these functions:

• Extraction of rate center and assignee information from NANPA's files, both for the current month and the same month from the previous year.
• Comparison and validation of data.
• Use of the most current NRUF forecast data.
• Easy manipulation of data (e.g., movement of rate centers from one side of a proposed split line to another) to permit the calculation of the exhaust of the NPA under study with various alternatives.

These functions are described in more detail below.

Data extraction - The model extracts information from NANPA's files for the specified NPA, placing the data, sorted by rate center, in tables. Next, the model counts central office codes, separated by type (wireline, wireless, etc.), and places this information in the table called "Rate Centers." Finally, the model populates the table called "Code Holders" with the number and type of central office codes assigned to each code holder.

Comparison and Validation of Data - After extracting data, the model compares rate center information between the data from the current files and the prior year's files. If rate center discrepancies are found, the model flags them, allowing the planner to correct the tables. Possible reasons for the discrepancies include recent NPA relief, rate center consolidation, simple misspellings, or the addition or deletion of specific rate centers.

NRUF Forecast Application - The model extracts forecasted central office code growth in the NPA from the most current NRUF. For calculating the lives associated with different relief alternatives, however, forecasted central office code growth must be distributed across rate centers. The model offers three options for doing this based on:

• Uniform application of the NRUF forecast across all rate centers,
• Individual rate center historical growth rate, or
• Manual input.

The first option assumes that central office code growth will be uniform across all rate centers in the NPA. The growth is spread across existing rate centers at a rate proportional to the percentage of existing codes in that rate center. For example, the model will allocate twice as many growth codes to a rate center with twelve codes than it would to a rate center with six codes. With this approach, the planner may have to make some adjustments to account for rounding. Also, the Planner may redistribute growth among the rate centers in anticipation of events that will occur during the planning or relief period.

The second option distributes forecasted growth in proportion to the previous year's observed growth in each rate center. As an example, a rate center that grew by nine central office codes in the preceding year will be allocated three times the number of growth codes as will a rate center that had growth of only three codes in the previous year. Again, some adjustments may be needed to account for rounding. The planner may, as in the first option above, redistribute growth among the rate centers in anticipation of known events that will occur during the planning or relief period.

Neither of the two options above allows for central office code growth or NPA exhaust different from that identified in the current NRUF. The only difference between the options is how that growth is applied to individual rate centers. In cases where more flexibility is needed, the third option allows the planner to enter the growth rate for each rate center.

Any of the three options above can accommodate negative growth, which can occur when codes are returned, rate centers are consolidated, etc.

The model also provides for the application of any of the three forecast options to growth before relief and after relief, independently.

Manipulation of data to calculate the exhaust of various alternatives - Once the forecasted growth is applied to the individual rate centers in the affected NPA, the planner will choose and evaluate different relief alternatives. The planner can select from five types of alternatives. These include:

• Two-way NPA splits,
• Three-way NPA splits,
• An NPA split followed by an overlay,
• A concentrated growth overlay, and
• A distributed (all services) overlay.

For split alternatives, the planner identifies which rate centers will move and which will remain in the old NPA. For the concentrated growth overlay option, the planner must select the quantity of protected codes and the number of months from the exhaust date that the overlay must be implemented.

The planner, if required, can select from four separate scenarios for wireless grandfathering. They are:

• No grandfathering,
• Cellular only,
• Cellular and paging, and
• All CLLIs¹ associated with a particular tandem switch (California only).

Model Assumptions

The assumptions used in the model assist the planner to insure consistency among the various relief planning activities. The major assumptions that are included in the model are:

• The forecast growth can be applied linearly.
• Lives of the relief alternatives can be calculated from the exhaust date of the NPA.
• The model should apply the same standard forecast assumptions to all alternatives selected.
• The information in the NANPA files represents the complete and correct attributes of the individual codes.

Outputs

The model provides the planner with both display and hard copy outputs, including:

• A summary sheet,
• A list of rate centers in the NPA,
• A list of carriers holding code assignments in the NPA, or
• A combination of the above.

For each relief alternative examined, the summary sheet identifies the months (or years) to exhaust, a summary of the planner-selected options, and summary of the NRUF information.

These printouts are included, when appropriate, with presentations to the Industry, in State Commission filings, and in the Initial Planning Document (IPD).

Summary

The model provides a consistent, yet highly flexible planning tool to enhance the NPA relief planning process. The model allows the planner to be responsive to the needs of the industry and evaluate revised or completely new alternatives in relatively short time. Alternatives can be tested and discarded if inappropriate, resulting in concentrated efforts on credible alternatives to aid in the industry consensus process and, ultimately, for submission to regulators for approval.

CLLI - COMMON LANGUAGE® Location Identifier, an 11-character switch descriptor. COMMON LANGUAGE is a registered trademark and CLLI is a trademark of Telcordia Technologies.